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Expert: One year to get immunity firewall

KUALA LUMPUR: An expert believes that even with the Movement Control Order (MCO), at least 50 per cent of the population has to be vaccinated first before the Covid-19 situation is contained and a semblance of normalcy returns.

Associate Professor Dr Malina Osman said that it would take at least a year from when the inoculation exercise begins before a significant segment of the population gains herd immunity and events, gatherings and even elections can resume.

The epidemiologist and biostatistician from Universiti Putra Malaysia, said this one-year window was needed for an “immunity firewall” to be activated to protect those who could not be vaccinated.

“We need time to reach rural areas, foreign workers, prisoners and others who are institutionalised so they can get both doses. Side-effects also need to be monitored to ensure the vaccines are safe.”

She said the more than 30,000 active and rising cases, a 1,500 per cent jump from the first MCO last year, was testament to the workload of healthcare workers after a super-spreader event.

“If one healthcare employee used to deal with 30 to 40 patients daily, the figure has theoretically soared to 450 to 500 patients. This is thanks to the third wave, a lesson we learnt from the Sabah state polls.

“The outbreak has gotten worse since and is proof why we cannot afford a general election now.”

Sabah, she added, was also testament to Malaysia’s lack of adherence to standard operating procedures (SOP) during polls, which makes holding a general election “a risk-factor of catastrophic proportions.”

She said a one-year reprieve was also crucial to tackle the pandemic’s fallout on the economy, education, mental health, non-communicable diseases as well as social and occupational functions.

Commenting on the state of emergency, Dr Malina said the move would prevent a collapse of the healthcare services due to a general election, something an MCO would not be able to prevent.

She lashed out at instances of high-profile people breaking the SOP, which she said had not helped the situation.

“There were plenty of loopholes during the Conditional MCO, which means laws, such as the Prevention and Control of Infectious Diseases Act 1988 (Act 342), are not enough.”

The public, she said, was developing SOP fatigue and had begun breaking social distancing rules.

She said with the Emergency, the authorities were honour-bound to ensure that there were no double standards in ensuring compliance.

Dr Safiya Amaran, a public health expert and medical lecturer at Universiti Sultan Zainal Abidin, said the Emergency would put a pause on politics and enable the National Security Council to draft SOP and rules.

Having an election now, she said, was a terrible idea, quoting models suggesting that Malay-sia’s case projection had surpassed Indonesia and the Philippines’ case trajectories.

She said the lack of clarity in SOP could be seen as far back as the early stages of the CMCO in the Klang Valley.

“The SOP were unclear and not strict enough, and that’s why green zones in Kelantan and Terengganu turned red.”

Dr Safiya said Malaysia was fortunate to have scraped by relatively unscathed during the Tabligh cluster.

“We don’t need a second lesson, especially when we are still dealing with the outcome of the Sabah election.”

Epidemiologist Datuk Dr Awang Bulgiba Awang Mahmud warned of SOP fatigue and that the authorities needed to rope in behavioural and communication experts to deal with the issue.

“We bought time with MCO 1.0, but squandered it and did not address many issues that I had long ago raised, such as migrant workers, implementation of the amended Workers’ Minimum Standards of Housing and Amenities Act 1990, syndromic surveillance, better data analysis, better indicators, scenario planning, and revision of the Pandemic Preparedness Plan.

“We need to institute steps that will prepare us for the next wave. If we do not do something about these issues, then the time we are buying with MCO 2.0 will be squandered again.”

Source: NST