17% of M’sians would choose an independent in next election — survey

KUALA LUMPUR: A survey by think tank EMIR Research shows a significant number of Malaysians would vote for an independent party if the next general election is held in the near term.

Specifically, 41% of Malaysians said they would vote for the ruling Pakatan Harapan coalition, and 38% for the Umno and PAS faction, now a political alliance called Muafakat Nasional.

Another 17% said they would vote for independents, while 4% declined to disclose their choice. However, based on the estimated margin of error of plus and minus 3%, the contest can be more reliably described as being neck to neck, said EMIR Research.

The inaugural survey, polling some 1,992 respondents nationwide, gauged their views on the current cabinet’s performance based on the government’s manifesto promises. From this, respondents were asked about their choice of party if the 15th general election (GE15) is to be held in a short time.

A full term is typically five years, with the GE15 expected in 2023.

“It is interesting to note the substantial support of 17% obtained by independents who could be kingmakers. Could this also be a harbinger of the third force movement’s emergence where independents, fed up with Pakatan and Muafakat Nasional, decide to coalesce into a single movement?” EMIR Research team member Professor Dr Margarita Peredaryenko said during a press conference.

In terms of income, Pakatan gets the vote of confidence of 51% from the middle-income bracket — those earning RM3,001 to RM5,000, and 52% from high-income earners of more than RM5,000.

“Unsurprisingly perhaps, the latter (high-income earners) tends to be more inclined to vote for the Pakatan government because they also tend to be less affected by socio-economic and economic issues revolving the cost of living of the ‘perut’ economy.

“Whereas for those earning less than RM3,000, 45% indicated their intention to vote for Muafakat Nasional, not very far off from 40% of the same group expressing their intention to vote for Pakatan.

“With the right design and implementation of public policies, particularly on the ‘perut’ economy, Pakatan can further outdo its rival Muafakat Nasional in securing a solid majority of votes,” Peredaryenko explained.

In terms of ethnicity, the divide is glaring with Malays and bumiputeras preferring Muafakat Nasional by 53%. The Chinese with a 64% majority, and the Indians (52%) prefer Pakatan.

“This means Pakatan has much work to do to close the gap with Muafakat Nasional concerning Malay and bumiputera support,” Peredaryenko said.

This is also the case for the urban-rural divide, as the survey’s results showed 58% of rural folks prefer Muafakat Nasional, while 48% of urbanites prefer Pakatan.

Source: TheEdgeMarkets